Accumulation of funds in the budget, in connection withlow tax discipline and deformations in the behavior of economic agents, usually leads to undesirable consequences: the reduction of private investment due to government and, consequently, the lack of GDP growth (the so-called crowd-out effect crowded out by the American economist R. Barroso). The question is how much this effect is typical for the modern national economy?
Checking the relationship between the dynamics of public and privateprivate investment taking into account the time lags of the delay in the reaction of private investment shows that the closer it is to the value of unity, the closer correlation is observed. However, as the market moves to the market, the situation changes: there is an increase in the correlation between these macro parameters.
An analysis of the relationship between the dynamics ofexpenditures and monthly GDP growth also showed that there is a close relationship between government spending and the volume of national production in the Russian economy. You can consider government spending as an essential lever of impact on macrodynamics.
Are taxes from individuals in our economy regarded as an anticyclic lever and a stimulator of economic growth, or only as a way of replenishing the treasury?
Direct taxes, according to the Keynesian approach,are the automatic levers of fiscal policy, because their value is almost directly proportional to the incomes of the subjects of the economy and to the fact that taxes are brought from individuals, hence, to the volume of the gross domestic product.
In this regard, their change should be moreEffectively influence macrodynamics than the change in indirect taxes. But according to the theory of supply, such a fall can be slowed down by a lowering of the rate of proportional tax. This theoretical premise was one of the reasons for the development in the Russian Federation of a project of gradual shifting of priorities for taxes from individuals, which contributes to the predominance of direct taxes. These are today: land, income, to purchase foreign currency, property, advertising, as well as fees: customs, parking, for border clearance, cleaning of territories. Individuals pay contributions to the pension fund, and those who are PIs are registered.
However, the structure of tax revenues to the budget,including personal income tax, and other income from them, compared to other countries is somewhat different - we have indirect taxes. Therefore, the functional mathematical dependence of GDP dynamics on the amount of direct tax charges will include automatic change of parameters. The analysis of statistics shows that the most effective leverage influencing macrodynamics is the share of direct tax collections from GDP, and not such as the personal income tax.
In this regard, when developing fiscalstrategy is important not only to know about the effectiveness of direct taxes as a fiscal countercyclical lever, but also the interdependence of some of the tax collections on their own values at previous time intervals. Such a phenomenon can be described using methods of economic analysis.
In the economic literature,that the economy of the country is very sensitive to tax changes. In addition, it is believed that this dependence has increased in recent years, as evidenced by the high and growing values of the tax multiplier. Such calculations should be treated with caution, because the GDP growth, which was the basis for such a calculation, could be provided by other factors. In addition, the formation of the reaction of the level of national production for tax changes takes time, and taxes from individuals - a current phenomenon. Therefore, we should talk about the cumulative effect of tax changes, distributed over time.
Consideration of the effect of taxes on the economyin the conventional form through the mechanism of the so-called tax multiplier is not entirely correct. Since this indicator does not take into account indirect factors. The level of direct taxation is one of the most effective fiscal levers for smoothing cyclical dynamics. But when applied to a sustainable growth policy strategy, three main points should be considered:
